Ok, wholly unsubstantiated guesstimate based on some recent trends and a post I saw from Irene:Since they now own the world, by next year, Wal-Mart makes a bigger move in the downloading space for both music and movies, competing with Blockbuster, Hollywood Video and Netflix, likely undercutting them all on price. Just like Blockbuster gobbled up the little video stores up the street when they first came to town, now comes an even bigger Pac-Man.
Helping them to realize that dream? The increasing cost of going to the movies. MPAA’s 2005 theatre statistics indicate things are just awesome! Hold on a sec. Not based on the movies I went to this year. There’s a tipping point looming: the theatre-going experience becomes the home-based one. The economic model of $30+ for two people to go see a movie as well as order refreshments can’t continue, unless people just love blowing their money.
Right now, that’s good for theatre owners, NOT SO NICE for consumers. What’s the incentive for the consumer to continue like this? More commercials before the movies? A bigger cupholder? More promos for upcoming cable shows? Not to mention, that $30 fee goes up if you have kids. Cha-ching: another $20 for a babysitter.
Based on that, why should people keep going out when they can just TiVo their favorite shows, use Netflix or stop by
And theatre owners, like travel agents just a few short years ago, act like it’s all good. Earn while you can, right? They get paid based on how many weeks they can keep a title playing. (Studios get the majority of their money early in a film’s run, theatre owners earn theirs on the back-end – if the movie plays long enough.) Right now, they all LOVE Borat and anything else that packs people in.
That’s the thing though.
The prevailing logic among owners is that if only Hollywood would make better movies, well, that would be better for them because more people would come out. The movies would stay longer. Not so fast. This isn’t a quality issue – it’s a distribution issue. It’s about consumers and how much they have to pay for those quality films. I’m at the point where I feel like skipping the movies in theatres, and not because of the quality.
Hollywood’s already changing how they premiere movies anyway. Theatres should be worried. Sundance, the once ‘independent’ film festival, now showcases new releases and has more sponsors then Jeff Gordon’s rear quarter panel. Another interesting move is the one Steven Soderbergh pulled: simultaneous release of a major motion picture called Bubble in theatres and on DVD – the same day.
So go ahead and tell me I’m about to see the best movie ever made, but if that price keeps creeping up towards the $11-12+ range? Sorry. I’ll wait for it on DVD for $4.29. I might even be able to buy it used on Amazon or maybe eBay for a few dollars more.
And in the old days, features took a year or so to make it to regular TV. Now, I only have to wait a few months for the DVD release, and with the steady diet of recycled TBS and AMC Classics, the wait ain’t so bad.
Which leads me to... Wal-Mart and those DVD releases.
The ones they’ll bundle with that new plasma TV purchase. The ones that will also include one month free rental on both their in-store and online rental service, or mybe even offer discounts on current DVD titles. Then they’ll throw in a few free song downloads too. (Consider that they’re already trying to undercut Apple with .88¢ specials.)
Maybe land a few major Hollywood releases to compete with Blockbuster’s own exclusive Hollywood deal. I’m guessing it’ll be the Disney/Mel Gibson feature Apocalypto, exclusively at Wal-Mart for starters.
Oh, and don’t forget the $4.88 Popcorn Family Pack with 2-Litre Pepsi® on the way out of Wal-Mart’s rental center at the front of the store.
Just so it doesn’t seem like I’m pro-Wal-Mart, here are two drawbacks to my master plan:
1) The reluctance of a mostly unionized movie industry to make any deal with the great non-union Devil, even though at the end of the day, both are about tha money, unions or not.
2) The guy in charge of the 50-cart push in the parking lot will now be handling your rental duty, so you just know you’re guaranteed of getting the right DVD in that case at checkout.
Tags: TiVo, Wal-Mart, NetFlix, Blockbuster, media guess, Hollywood Video
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