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Sunday, September 28, 2008

McCain - 1, Obama - 0?

McCain came off as a maverick, not letting Barack have much of a word edgewise, let alone facing him, nor listening to moderator Jim Lehrer. He did come off as a little more approachable with a few quips early on though and seemed to be sure of himself throughout, if a bit repetitious hammering home some of the GOP talking points.

Barack was on the defensive too much and gave credit to McCain way too often. He’s still thinking about his answers, seemingly rephrasing questions because he disagrees with their premise. He needs to answer with a Yes or No, then explain away if he needs to. Obama also needs to come off far more presidential and take control of the next debate and take the attack to McCain.

Problem with mavericks is that they tend do what they want without consulting a lot of people. McCain is ready day one, I have no doubt, but the presidency is also is about seeking the advice of those who may know a little more than you.

Still, McCain acted like a leader. The accuracy of Individual points notwithstanding, he has now managed to frame the campaign and this first debate in the context of America’s safety and the war—period. Disagree with that if you want, but there are a lot of people in OH, TX, PA, VA, FL who believe that is the defining issue of this election. (Jetpacks notwithstanding.) Those people tonight saw a leader talk down to a junior senator and position him as inexperienced and not tough enough for the job.

Don’t underestimate five years in prison. McCain knows he can ‘survive’ a campaign, as does his camp. He doesn’t expect a landslide because it’s unrealistic. He just has to do enough to win. Obama seems focused on uniting everyone. Nice goal but also unrealistic. The debate may have failed to produce a classic soundbite like “You’re no Jack Kennedy,” but McCain will take a win, even if he had to eek one out. Mavericks don’t care that 49.99% of the population disagree with them—they only care about the other 51.01%.

Especially on election day.

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7 comments:

Ben Kunz said...

Hmm. This first debate seemed a tie to me, or more accurately, a deadlock ... reminded me of two guys arm wrestling who shake the table but their hands don't move. McCain came off as an elder statesman with honor, but Obama went into great detail to convey he understands foreign policy. I think supporters of either felt validated.

Truth is both men are qualified. I think the VP contention on Thursday may do more to swing the voters.

Anonymous said...

Hence, ‘eek.”

;-p

In the context of who went into detail more? Obama did. But in the context of “I want a leader who’s sure of himself and confident, not wavering in his responses,” then McCain schooled him.

Anonymous said...

I know you'll be shocked, but I tend to disagree with you, mainly because of what each needed to accomplish on Friday. McCain is already viewed as a leader and a maverick. I'm sure most of his base thought highly of his performance.

But, he consistently said some variation of "he doesn't understand" which was followed by Obama giving a coherent answer to the question and showing a clear understanding of the issues.

So, the goal for Obama in this debate was the same as JFK, the same as Reagan, or any other younger politician running against someone with more experience. Pass the threshold.

The ultimate goal for McCain was to frame Obama as "not ready to lead" and he got nowhere with it because of Obama's performance.

So, ultimately, it looks like most of the punditry are calling it a tie on the surface (me too), but as the polls indicate, a tie in the debate itself probably has an effect more helpful for Obama.

The other side of this is body language. Probably a bigger issue than can be covered here, but it's tough to tell which posture will work better.

Anonymous said...

Yeah, agree, this was close and totally a judgement call. His base was cemented for sure and Obama held his own. It just felt like Obama stammered too much and that McCain had him flustered many times. I counted about six times where Obama said “That’s not true.”

In that regard, McCain put things out there even if they were taken out of context, forcing Obama to try and answer as they moved on to the next question. Lehrer didn’t help matters much by letting Obama respond in those instances.

phillybikeboy said...

"he has now managed to frame the campaign and this first debate in the context of America’s safety and the war"

Which is why McCain, in the eyes of most viewers, lost. Most Americans don't support the war anymore. They don't care that the surge kinda-sorta worked. They do care that we've wasted a Wall Street bailout amount of cash on a war that has done nothing to make us safer. They do care that the guy who did do this is still running around, free to plot against us. McCain is now on the wrong side of the issue. His focusing the campaign on safety and security was a gift to Obama.

Is McCain a maverick? Sho `nuff. But don't forget, Bush is a Maverick as well....and people are sick and fucking tired of mavericks right about now.

Anonymous said...

@philly-I think this one is gonna be close, especially in Ohio, especially on that issue. I never really felt he had any other issue he could call his own. Shameless on his part? Sure, but, what else can he do because he sure ain’t the agent of change or hope.

This whole thing was always about War vs. Hope. Obama can certainly get back on the Hope track, but fear works in in OH, PA, VA, TX, FL and so on, so McCain is playing that card. And how many recent elections have come down to just one state, either FL or OH. Too many.

Forgetting that, my main point here is that Dems shouldn’t act like this is all sewn up. Obama doesn’t seem quite there yet with that confidence-instilling performance that makes you forget the other guy to his right.

(McCain—Always On The Right™. Damn, why can’t they hire me.)

Anonymous said...

As a moderate I would also say this was more of a tie. Although I would give the edge to Obama only because this was supposed to be McCain's strong suit debate and he held his ground just fine, but he needed to bury Obama which he didn't. Obama held his own and in fact agreeing on several points with McCain was smart as well. Realistically both McCain and Obama have some good and bad suggestions for America. So of course, some of what McCain states is going to be true and accurate as well as Obama's. There's no wrong with agreeing to some views. if someone is right then agree with them. Not a biggie.